Climate resilient agri sourcing in Africa
Agriculture is increasingly under pressure due to the effects of climate change and associated increased weather variability and extreme events. Climate change will have a major impact on production and sourcing of agricultural commodities in Africa, in many of its countries (Figure 1), while farmers, investors and traders seem not ready to adequately respond to the projected impacts. Mapping crop and region-specific climate related risks and opportunities will help understanding changes in risk profiles for farmers, investors, and traders, and provide a starting point for defining adaptation strategies. Through climate-proof sourcing of agricultural products, the Dutch agri-food sector and their partners have an opportunity to make its supply from other countries climate resilient, and learn from adaptation strategies at crop, region and supply chain level.
This project contributes to the priority of Internationalisation (with focus on climate adaptation). The aim is to contribute to define (short and medium) term adaptation strategies to climate change in agricultural production and trade in Africa by timely identifying climate related risks and opportunities for a selected number of crops and regions.
The project supports the agenda of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (both department of DGIS and BEB) for promoting investment opportunities for Dutch SMEs, investing in the agri value chain alongside larger corporates. In addition, it links to the ministry of agriculture, nature and food quality by addressing the resilience and sustainability of value chains. Insights and climate resilient improvement options can be linked with Dutch parties and enterprises to promote Dutch available technology, knowledge and innovation related to climate adaptation, presenting opportunities for project development.
The ultimate impact foreseen is that Dutch agri trade becomes climate-resilient in important areas and commodities world-wide. Agri sourcing and agricultural production worldwide is increasingly under pressure due to the effects of climate change and associated increased weather variability and extreme events. This is leading to changes in risk profiles for financers of agricultural assets, but also creating opportunities for new sourcing areas. Through climate-proof sourcing of agricultural products, Dutch agri-food sector has an opportunity to make its supply in other countries climate resilient.
At the same time, making agri sourcing climate resilient will also require improvements in farm communities. These should go hand in hand. The optimal outcome would be that in several cases we find the right incentives for big buyers to invest and create scale in terms of making agri supply and farm communities more climate resilient.
Our research will support participants to make climate sensitive decisions on agri sourcing:
* Interactive dashboard for obtaining critical insights in the impact of climate change in risks and impacts on agri sourcing;
* Identify key climate impacts on agri production and possible solutions;
* Improved strategic options for climate resilient sourcing investments.
It is a generic and stepwise approach using expert based and, where appropriate models, based on the latest and most relevant datasets available (downscaled climate scenarios, crop specific requirements and agronomic information including from partners organisations). Climate proof sourcing strategies are identified and evaluated in general terms of economic feasibility and the sourced volume (also considering inter and intra annual variability). We consider this challenge from business partners perspective (i.e., buyers and investors).